Russian Military Car - By Andrew Radin, Lynn E. Davis, Edward Geist, Eugenia Han, Dara Massicot, Matthew Povlock, Clint Reach, Scott Boston, Samuel Charap, William Mackenzie et al.

Because of the competing interests of Russia and the West, and because of the uncertainty of Russia's future, the way Russia develops its military poses real problems for the United States. Company and its partners. It is known that the Russian military has improved since the war in Georgia in 2008. Uncertainty about the strength of the Russian military will cause problems for the defense strategy of the West. Russia may seek to increase the size of its global forces to achieve greater parity with the West, or its economy and demographics may require it to limit size and quality. of his troops. Russia can deploy its military forces in a number of major challenges, including preparing for war with NATO, military power against the former Soviet republics, or world power.

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This brief summarizes a report that looks at the development of Russia's military capabilities over the next 20 years - with a focus on land conflict - and the implications of those developments for the US competition. -Russia and the US military. The researchers designed a two-dimensional theoretical framework to analyze the growth of Russian forces in relation to the world war: (1) identify and make predictions about political, economic factors , demographic, and social impact of the Russian military, and (2) look into the future. the development of large military bases. This method provides a literary, simple and systematic method for forecasting in the short term (next 5 years), medium term (5-10 years) or long term (10-20 years) years old).

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The researchers relied on open sources - including Russian government documents, government budgets, laws and public statements - and on a variety of detailed reports about the Russian military's government-sponsored, state-sponsored military presence. and non-governmental research organizations, such as Defense. Intelligence Agency, Swedish Counter Intelligence Agency, Other Military Intelligence Agency, , etc. Russian and Western media also reported on Russian military developments and activities. Finally, the researchers spoke with US and Russian officials and experts who study the Russian military.

The ability of any nation to create and maintain a military depends on many factors, some of the most important being security, community support, economic activity, defense spending, demographics, and the size and quality of military forces and their relationships. Over the past decade, the key factors that underpin Russia's ability to create and maintain Russian forces have changed significantly, but these factors show signs of remaining stable. the middle period.

Researchers have found that the Russian elite has a certain opinion about the threats that Russia faces, and there is no evidence that this is changing. The group also presented a strategic plan for Russia's use of military force in response to these threats, shown in Table 1. Public opinion shows support for the government. , Russia's foreign policy, and the military.

Slow economic growth is predicted in Russia, 1-2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Russia's military has grown significantly, largely due to increased revenue spending, while future military spending is expected to increase as a percentage of GDP. Although Russia does not enjoy rapid population growth, its demographic situation is not crippling. Russia has also built a solid recruitment and manning system, which can solve the quality problems that crippled its military in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

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To analyze the development of the Russian economy in the last ten years, the researchers looked at eight main areas: (1) international forces; (2) non-fire (distance less than 100 km); (3) long-term effects; (4) rapidly deployable forces; (5) command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance, and intelligence (C4ISR); (6) air defense; (7) electronic warfare; and (8) internal security forces. For each one, the researchers analyzed the new aspects of the plan, the expenses, the employees, and the new activities, and brought close ideas from these aspects. The company has identified three common development strategies:

The whole idea for Russia's development of these serious competitors is ongoing, both in terms of the overall structure and in terms of the military-industrial complex.

Russia's international forces are a prime example of continuity and change. The Swedish military received a small portion of the money for procurement and modernization. New Soviet-era platforms, such as the T-72B3, can be made like modern platforms by adding new features (such as fire protection systems or strong protection) for a fraction of the cost. Russia has maintained a high level of internal and external threat by maintaining a large number of Soviet-era firearms and ammunition, with little modernization. Russia's air defense forces - including the Airborne and GRU-Spetsnaz - are also based on Soviet-era models but are modern and greatly improved forces, with new C4ISR systems and equipment. Russia's internal security forces have been built from scraps of Soviet-era buildings into newly created and reorganized factories.

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While Russia has adopted and modified Soviet plans to acquire long-range missile defense systems (ie, systems deployed at the theater level, usually with ranges over 100 km), it has modeled and modified It is the American ideas in his teaching and approach. But Russia needs more resources available after 2008 to start using long-range missile systems, sea, and land. Russian C4ISR represents a combination of legacy Soviet systems and the comparison and adaptation of Western ideas and approaches, such as cyber-centric warfare. Russia's most advanced air defense systems are built on the Soviet Union's massive investment in air defense, while its electronic warfare is an example of where Russia has invested in deterrence capabilities. to known US interests.

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The group also sought funding from the Russian government to support the defense industry. In some areas, especially in the long-term conflict and C4ISR, the Kremlin has put a lot of resources into restoring some companies, showing the establishment of the systems they work on. . In other areas, such as air defense and electronic warfare, Russia has provided long-term support to companies working on critical infrastructure. The third type-the collapse and integration of the crisis enterprises into the state-owned enterprises-represents the end of the main equipment of the Russian land forces (tanks and including infantry fighting vehicles), due to low demand and lack of funding. The fourth step involves investing in more innovative technologies, but these steps are more modest.

Russia's development of land-based weapons will continue to focus on long-range strikes, C4ISR, and rapid reaction forces. Russia's armed forces will generally achieve their security objectives within the available resources. Russia may face higher military spending costs due to a reduction in the number of men in the military until 2024, but it can find and recruit enough personnel to maintain the size of his troops. Russia will continue to focus on the implementation of local government in almost any foreign country, emphasizing the competence and professionalism of a small part of the armed forces. Some expansions and improvements will include long-range forces, rapid forces, C4ISR, and air defense, while there will be relative stagnation in ground forces and non-fire. Russia will seek cooperation with the West in activities such as the fight against terrorism in the Middle East, but will try to turn east to closer relations, especially with China.

But since the future is not known, the research team identified two changes that could give Russia an incentive to pursue different weapons in the world: fluctuating energy prices, changes in economic growth, and changes in economic growth and security policies of Russia due to changes. relations with the West and China. After carrying out that assessment, the group believes that Russia will continue to take the first step in terms of strategic deterrence, internal governance, and internal security.

Table 2 summarizes the researchers' expectations for Russia's development in eight capability areas and shows the implications for the military.

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The strategic and national security debate is deterrent in nature, while military deterrence can threaten the United States and its allies. Russia clearly sees threats from NATO expansion and the strengthening of US/NATO forces on its borders. Russia's perception of the threat may increase, or a crisis may emerge that could lead to an unexpected military escalation. American politicians should engage with Russia's view of being threatened by the deployment of American military forces in Europe.

The country's dominance is an immediate threat to US interests, as Russia's main focus of influence are former Soviet republics such as Ukraine and Georgia that are seeking to join. together with the Euro-Atlantic alliances. Given Russia's growing power and ambition, American support has not - and has not - been seen to significantly undermine Russia's domestic dominance. However, the US military can find opportunities to strengthen partner security forces by improving the quality and capabilities of niche areas, such as foreign officials, forces focused on the assistance of security forces, intelligence operations, and military medical forces.

Russia's military capabilities present a complex challenge that requires flexibility and the ability to engage effectively with well-established enemies. Although Russia has deployed special forces, long-range assaults, and air defenses, its military is not set up to be a global expeditionary force, especially given its mission components.

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